Western Europe BEV market continues to witness slow growth

Provisional Schmidt Automotive Research data suggests that the West European pure electric BEV new passenger car market continued to tread water this year. BEVs accounted for 12.5 per cent of the total new car market across the 18 West European market region monitored by the European Electric Car Study during the opening half of 2022.

Matthias Schmidt

European Automotive Market Analyst @ Schmidt Automotive Research

While the new zero-emission BEV new passenger car market in June witnessed an annual growth rate of just 3 per cent compared to the same month last year, recording 131,000 new BEVs entering the region’s roads, the growth rate also began to tumble on a cumulative basis.

The opening six months witnessed 30% more new BEVs enter the roads between January and June compared to the same period last year while during the whole of last year the market increased by double that amount (+64% y/y).

Source: Schmidt Automotive Research

630,000 pure electric passenger cars – 83,000 (13% BEV market share) of which came from Tesla models that were exposed and subsequently impacted by China’s recent covid lockdowns – entered a total new car market, that witnessed registrations fall by 14% compared to the same opening six month period last year with just 5.03 million new passenger cars.

The 12-month rolling total new passenger car market remained below 10 million units for a second consecutive month.

The market traditionally totals over 14 million new passenger car registrations in an average pre-covid year.

The 12-month rolling BEV total reached 1.34 million units or 13.7 per cent of the total market between July 2021 and June 2022.

During full-year 2021, 1.19 million new BEVs entered the market according to the study’s exclusive monthly data, with that annual total to increase to between 1.4 million and 1.5 million units during 2022 according to the study’s forecast.

That would bring the total amount of new zero-emission passenger cars that have entered the region’s roads since 2012 to 4.4 million units.

BEVs still account for under 2 per cent of the region’s vehicles in circulation (Parc)

The total number of passenger cars on the road across the 18 country monitored region at the end of last year (Parc) was 239 million registered models, which would equate to a BEV mix remaining just below 2 per cent by the close of 2022.

The monthly European Electric Car Study still forecasts BEVs to account for around 14 per cent of a slightly below 11 million new passenger car market this year, with the latest production data from Germany suggesting the market may be about to rebound somewhat in the second half of 2022.

This may be enough to satisfy long order books, with Volkswagen Group confirming they have 300,000 BEVs waiting to be delivered across Western Europe; however, with economies looking far from stable, those order book springboards may be only a small welcome, before the market goes into another period of hibernation.

Supply woes of 2021 and 2022 could flip to demand woes in 2023.

Major European countries threaten to tighten spending, which could impact all-important fiscal and purchase subsidies for EVs in the mid-term, as witnessed in the UK in June when purchase subsidies for electric cars were removed.

A repeat of 2021, where manufacturers limited supply of lower profit models in favour of higher-margin and higher emitting models, may be back on the menu for 2023, as consumers could turn away from new vehicle purchases/private leases as energy costs rise and decide to hold onto their existing vehicles for longer.

BEVs are still likely to see a stable penetration of the new car market as OEMs strive to achieve CO2 fleet emissions targets and avoid costly fines.

Markets such as the UK which are likely to introduce a California-style ZEV mandate would also guarantee BEV penetration remains high going forward, alongside a ban of new ICE models coming into force in Norway from 2025 and tightening EU CO2 fleet targets


Matthias Schmidt

European Automotive Market Analyst @ Schmidt Automotive Research
Automotive Analyst with 15 years of experience serving the highest-ranking executives and decision-makers in and around the industry Member of @thefactory Berlin Automotive.

Related Expert Blogs

Competitiveness of Europe’s EV Charging Industry: CRA view

The electrification of transport is at the forefront of global decarbonisation efforts, accounting for around $120 billion of investment in the EMEA region in 2022.¹ EVs are central to this trend, totalling more than $350 billion of consumer spending last year.² As EV adoption grows, investors increasingly focus on eMobility opportunities in an effort to reach the €600 billion...

Robert Stocker

Consulting Associate @ Charles River Associates
3 minute read |

Tesla quarterly global volumes surpass German premium OEM

According to our exclusive research, Tesla surpassed a German volume premium manufacturer's global delivery volumes during a quarter for the first time. AUDI AG is the first German premium volume manufacturer to witness its global quarterly volumes fall behind Teslas'.

Matthias Schmidt

European Automotive Market Analyst @ Schmidt Automotive Research
3 minute read |

Comment: EU 2035 CO2 legislation and the pseudo prohibition

It depends on how you see this last-minute swerve off the legislative Autobahn, which up until a few weeks ago was firmly heading at record tempo in the direction of new passenger cars not being permitted to emit more than a fleet average of 0g/km CO2 by 2035, or in layman's terms a complete phase-out of the humble petrol/diesel...

Matthias Schmidt

European Automotive Market Analyst @ Schmidt Automotive Research
3 minute read |

Q4 storm saw W-Europe’s BEV market record new highs

Anyone familiar with a wood-burning stove has no doubt become accustomed to the slight panic of seeing the initial ferocity of the flames dwindle following the fire's combustion of both firelighter and kindling. Left with the conundrum of adding more fuel, or remaining confident that the slow-burning stove has amassed enough energy to reach that crucial infection point where...

Matthias Schmidt

European Automotive Market Analyst @ Schmidt Automotive Research
3 minute read |

The 2022 West European BEV market ended with a bounce

Western Europe witnessed 15 per cent of its total passenger car market accounted for by pure electric BEV passenger cars during 2022 according to the next edition of the European Electric Car Study.

Matthias Schmidt

European Automotive Market Analyst @ Schmidt Automotive Research
3 minute read |

Which software option is optimal for EV charging CPOs

Which software option is optimal for EV charging CPOs of different scales in 2023: Custom or SaaS? Businesses of every size and industry share much in common, and one of those is the necessity of the software component. EV Charge point operators (CPOs) are not an exclusion. From the very first station installed, their business simply cannot run without...

Oleksandr Fedotov

CTO @ Extrawest
3 minute read |

Get started Free of Charge

EV Reports Database