Week 50: long-term estimates of EV penetration

We're here with fresh stories for you during the most delightful time of the year. This week, we have reports covering the projected worldwide EV penetration, the deployment of charging infrastructure, the mining of crucial materials for EV batteries, the development of EV infrastructure in low-income nations, and lastly, a discussion on the use of battery modelling.
In week 50 we added the following reports:

  • Forecasts of electric vehicle penetration and its impact on global oil demand | Columbia, SIPA
  • Deploying zero-emission vehicle infrastructure innovations to accelerate transportation decarbonization | Berkeley
  • The Future is Circular : Circular Economy and Critical Minerals for the Green Transition | Sintef
  • Developing Infrastructure for Synergies | SuM4All
  • The Value of Modelling for Battery Development and Use | Faraday Insights

The reports are shared and available free of charge in our database.

To achieve the degree of EV penetration required for a net zero 2050 trajectory, significant changes would be required

Forecasts for 2030 range from 11 percent to 63 percent for the penetration of EVs to total passenger car sales. The range of projections for 2050 is 31% to about 100%. The broad variation is caused by different projected levels of carbon restrictions, with NZ 2050 estimates having the greatest EV penetration. To achieve the degree of EV penetration required for a net zero 2050 trajectory, significant changes (e.g., in government policy, technology, pricing, etc.) would be required.

This study examines whether the current strong growth in EV sales—a fourfold gain from 2019 to 2021—is anticipated to continue or even accelerate. It does this by compiling medium- and long-term estimates of EV penetration. It compares survey results from 14 organizations—including governments, think tanks, oil firms, consultancies, and investment banks—with those from a comparable study carried out in 2019.

Forecasts of electric vehicle penetration and its impact on global oil demand | Columbia, SIPA

A line graph titled "Forecast BEV Share of Total EV Market (BEVs+PHEVs)" shows multiple projections from different organizations (government, oil companies, other, net zero, carbon constrained) for BEV market share from 2015 to 2050. The data lines vary, with some increasing steadily and others fluctuating. Thick red, green, yellow, and lighter lines represent different sources, indicating varying predictions. Source: Authors' 2021 survey results.
Source: Forecasts of electric vehicle penetration and its impact on global oil demand | Columbia, SIPA

Achieve a successful ZEV transition on a global scale

Many customers and fleet owners are still unwilling or unable to buy electric vehicles, frequently owing to worries about the lack of readily available infrastructure for fuelling and charging. Although certain countries and subnational jurisdictions may have ambitious plans for ZEV infrastructure, it will be essential to implement cutting-edge demonstration projects and create supporting policies in order to achieve a successful ZEV transition on a global scale.

This report highlights case studies on the global deployment of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. The cases outline the planning and regulatory frameworks used by governments to facilitate infrastructure and ZEV deployment. These countries are implementing cutting-edge collaborations and approaches to enhance ZEV fleet acceptance, the deployment of public and private charging infrastructure, and public awareness of the lower total cost of ownership associated with ZEV use.

Deploying zero-emission vehicle infrastructure innovations to accelerate transportation decarbonization | Berkeley

 

The search for minerals in the deep water

Large-scale adoption of low-carbon technologies will be necessary to make the transition to a net-zero economy. Discussions on creating new mining areas for providing these minerals have been sparked by worries that the lack of minerals may impede the green transition. The search for minerals in the deep water is one of the most debatable possibilities.

This study examines the mineral demands for a net-zero emissions energy system based on the technical decarbonization route of the Net Zero by 2050 scenario created by the International Energy Agency. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, rare earth elements, platinum, and copper are the seven essential minerals that are highlighted in this report.

The Future is Circular : Circular Economy and Critical Minerals for the Green Transition | Sintef

A bar graph illustrates mineral demand scenarios. The left bar shows a 690 Mt demand, reduced by 30% via technology, 18% through circular economy, and 10% by recycling. The right bar highlights a future scenario of 362 Mt, emphasizing recycling and technology improvements.
The Future is Circular : Circular Economy and Critical Minerals for the Green Transition | Sintef

the potential for grid expansion and railway electrification synergies

Along with a significant shift toward public transportation, walking, and cycling, electrification of transportation is a key component of the industry’s much-needed emission reductions. The decarbonization of the energy and transportation sectors will demand a significant increase in the production of renewable power. Despite the many advantages of decarbonized economies, the journey to get there is not without its difficulties.

This paper discusses the value of sector modelling in guiding long-term strategies for decarbonizing energy and transportation, the advantages of integrating the development of renewable electricity and the electrification of the road transportation sector, and the potential for grid expansion and railway electrification synergies. Examples from Asia, Africa, and Latin America are used to illustrate their points.

Developing Infrastructure for Synergies | SuM4All

A diagram titled "Areas of Business Models" features a hierarchical layout. The top box is labeled "Business Model Taxonomy" and branches into four categories: Energy Model, Application, Vehicle Segments, and Charging Model. Each category further breaks down into subcategories, showcasing different types of grids, public transport systems, and charging methods.
Source: Developing Infrastructure for Synergies | SuM4All

The importance that modelling plays in the development of batteries

Batteries are crucial for enabling clean energy and mobility, but they still require improvements in terms of efficiency, durability, security, and sustainability. Battery models let designers develop products more quickly and with less costly physical prototypes. Computer simulations at various scales take into account not just the characteristics of the materials, parts, and cells but also their effects on pack functioning over the course of the simulation.

This Insight will discuss the importance that modelling plays in the development of batteries, covering the battery chemistries that are already commercialised and upcoming advancements in battery technology (short and long-term)

The Value of Modelling for Battery Development and Use | Faraday Insights

Diagram showing the internal structure and operation of a lithium-ion battery. It features the cathode (layers of metal oxide), separator, and anode (graphite), with lithium ions (Li+) moving from anode to cathode and vice versa, indicating discharge and charge cycles.
Source: The Value of Modelling for Battery Development and Use | Faraday Insights

If you have any suggestions please consider providing feedback or uploading your report.

Related news

P3 Charging Index reveals Asia’s fastest-charging EVs

The P3 Group has released its P3 Charging Index for Asia at the 37th International Electric…

read more
EV Charging
Asia
Published by: Editorial board | June 19, 2024

UAE accelerates EV adoption to meet 2050 carbon neutrality goals

The UAE is intensifying its efforts to transition to e-Mobility as part of its ambitious plan…

read more
Electric Vehicles
Asia
Published by: Editorial board | June 18, 2024

Corporate cars falling behind in Europe’s Electric Vehicle adoption

A recent briefing by Transport & Environment (T&E) has highlighted a significant issue in Europe’s corporate…

read more
Electric Vehicles
Europe
Published by: Editorial board | June 17, 2024

EU introduces provisional duties on subsidised EV imports from China

In a decisive move aimed at ensuring fair competition and protecting its automotive industry, the European…

read more
Electric Vehicles
Americas
Published by: Editorial board | June 13, 2024