With the EU Commission's expected proposal to reduce passenger car fleet average CO2 emission targets in 2030 to minus 55% (currently -37.5% over 2020/21 levels), and possibly less anticipated, 100% reduction by 2035, Volkswagen Group CEO, Herbert Diess, indicated the most likely short-term course of action from Europe's OEMs just 24-hours earlier. "Maintaining high cash flows from our ICE business to support the transformation will be vital," he said during a presentation. With the net only likely to tighten more aggressively than previously announced from 2030 onwards, passenger car makers are likely to keep the EV brakes partially on until at least mid-decade (see forecast), while squeezing profits from incumbent ICEs accounting for more than 90% of current passenger car volumes.
In terms of plug-in volumes today, pure electric (BEV) models overtook plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models for the first time this year in June, as projected in the previous edition, aided by Tesla’s end-of-quarter push, accounting for one-fifth (20%) of all BEVs in June – more than any other brand.
During the first half of the year, Germany (148,700) remained twice as large as the next pure electric car market (UK: 73,900), accounting for 31% of all BEV volumes registered across the 18 market region. It stayed at 29.5% in the second quarter, while PHEV volumes in the first half accounted for the same 31% of the region as BEVs. According to corporate data, the largest BEV passenger car group in Western Europe remains Volkswagen Group (25.4% share), which delivers three-quarters of its global BEV volumes (171,000) to Europe. The VW brand remained the leading BEV volume brand, with 74,100 units (15.3% market share) registered during the first half, or slightly more than every tenth VW badged model entering W-European roads (676,274).
However, if you look further down the list, VW’s EU CO2 pool partner, China’s SAIC-owned MG brand, stood out in June, with its ZS model ranking in the top ten volume positions. However, with nearly half of those 3,700 volumes arriving in Sweden, a closer look reveals that, due to a fiscal change in July, dealers likely pre-registered a large number of models in order to pass on cheaper tax rates to their business drivers in the future. Nonetheless, Chinese OEMs accounted for 4% of the global BEV market in June, which was more than the combined Japanese BEV models.