In the European passenger automobile market, February may have been a watershed moment. The European Automobile Makers Association (ACEA), which represents European passenger car manufacturers, appears to agree with fresh European Commission Green Deal ideas to be addressed this summer. The discussions are centred on raising CO2 fleet average emissions targets for 2030. A reasonable compromise accord would be a 12.5 percentage point increase over the existing target of 37.5 percent reduction by 2030. This would result in a new objective of reducing fleet CO2 emissions by half from present 2021 levels to roughly 60g/km (WLTP) by 2030.
Manufacturers presented their full-year financial results in March, mainly with improved forward-looking BEV targets, with some, such as Volkswagen, citing the Green Deal as a key reason. BMW Group CEO Zipse, who is also the current ACEA president, stated during the BMW Group investor call that if necessary, the Munich-based manufacturer will be able to meet electric demand if the market demands it, while also indicating that the group’s MINI brand will transition to a BEV-only brand by the early 2030s.
With Ford of Europe making similar promises and Jaguar phasing out ICEs beginning in 2025, this edition of the research is now confident in offering a market outlook for 2030. The Green Deal and Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive discussions, which aim to increase the deployment of charging infrastructure, will have a significant impact on the future market.
In terms of market development, the European market is growing increasingly reliant on the German market. Without Germany, the West European region would have experienced a 1.2% fall in new BEV registrations during the first two months of the year, however, with Germany, which now accounts for twice as many registrations as the next largest market, France, the market climbed by 23.7% year on year. The German market is largely supported by generous government/OEM joint purchase subsidies with a €9,000 maximum available, which help lower lease rates, while fiscal benefits for company car drivers are also leading to German PHEV volumes accounting for one-third of the West European PHEV total, or nine percentage points higher than its share of the total West European passenger car market (23.9%).