The 2022 West European BEV market ended with a bounce

Since 2020 when new European Union passenger car CO2 fleet average emissions legislation was updated BEV volumes have grown consistently. This legislation was effectively replicated in Switzerland and the UK with minor deviations. EFTA markets Norway and Iceland are part of the EU equation.

 

Growth deceleration expected in 2023

The monthly study expects the pace of growth to decelerate during 2023 however as passenger car manufacturers wait until 2025 to introduce more BEV-dedicated models with the aim of meeting the next cut in CO2 legislation (-15% over 2020/2021 levels) as well as aiming to achieve scaling benefits for those new models, such as BMW Group’s NeueKlasse based models.

2022 also benefitted from a likely pull-forward in BEV registrations in Germany, accounting for almost one-in-three (31%) of the region’s new pure electric models last year as a government purchase subsidy was reduced going into 2023.

 

Subsidy gaps, driving OEM price reductions?

Just days into the new year, in fact, we have witnessed OEMs with potentially bulging inventory and narrow order books react quickly by lowering BEV prices to paper over the missing subsidy gaps.

Government BEV premium purses slammed completely shut in the UK and Sweden (although fiscal benefits remain) while in other key North European markets (inc. Switzerland, Austria, France, Germany, UK, Ireland, Benelux and all Noridc markets) – which account for over 90% of regional new pure electric new car volumes – other minor reductions have also been witnessed as politicians look to fill gaping holes in their budgets.

Notably, Norway which witnessed eight in ten of its new car market accounted for by pure electric models and sees a 2025 ban for new ICE passenger car models going forward, witnesses tax rates for plugin models heading back upwards from this year.

 

Source: Schmidt Automotive Research