In a recent study commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E), Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has delivered a stark warning to European truckmakers: they could lose a substantial 11% of the EU market to international electric competitors by 2035. This potential market share loss is equivalent to the combined presence of renowned trucking giants Scania and IVECO. Instead, competitors like Tesla and BYD are poised to claim this territory.
T&E is urging lawmakers to apply pressure on European producers to accelerate the supply of zero-emission trucks and better equip them for international competition. While the entry barriers in the truck market have historically been higher compared to the automotive sector, the rapid electrification trends in other regions could alter this landscape.
BCG’s study predicts that EU demand for zero-emission trucks will surge to a substantial 55% of total sales by 2030 as prices become more competitive. However, current truck CO2 standards may leave European manufacturers struggling to meet this heightened demand. This mirrors the challenges faced by European car manufacturers who lagged in electrification and now face fierce competition from Chinese EV manufacturers within the EU.
Increasingly ambitious CO2 targets could yield substantial benefits for European workers and the economy. BCG’s modeling indicates that a faster transition to zero-emission trucks would result in more significant gains by 2035. The European Commission’s proposed targets could generate an additional 7,000 jobs in the sector by 2035 compared to current targets. In contrast, T&E’s more ambitious proposals could create 23,000 new jobs.
Moreover, these targets would bolster the contribution of the truck manufacturing sector to the European economy. The EU Commission’s proposed targets could lead to an additional €10 billion in GDP compared to current standards. T&E’s proposed targets, on the other hand, could contribute a substantial €27 billion in GDP.
In summary, the clock is ticking for European truckmakers. To safeguard their dominance and ensure the prosperity of European workers and the economy, swift action, including more ambitious CO2 targets and a determined shift toward zero-emission trucks, is imperative.
Source: Impact assessment of the transition to zero-emission trucks in Europe | BCG