ZEVs are commonly recognised as an efficient approach to cut CO2 emissions and decarbonize the heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) industry. However, it is unclear how quickly and for which vehicle segments the transition from internal combustion engine cars (ICEVs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) will occur.
The predicted technological advancements and cost reductions of vehicle components such as batteries, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage tanks, as well as the future evolution of energy costs such as diesel, electricity, and renewable hydrogen, will be key drivers determining market acceptance. Possible limits include inadequate vehicle ranges, limited charging/fueling infrastructure availability, more downtime owing to longer charging and refuelling periods, and payload losses due to larger trucks.
This paper evaluates the techno-economic feasibility and market adoption potential of zero-emission trucks in the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) over the 2020-2040 period.
In this research, switching from ICEVs to ZEVs is judged possible if TCO parity with diesel counterparts is achieved (affordability) and operational restrictions such as range limits, time constraints, or payload losses can be avoided (applicability). The distribution of average daily mileages of the fleet as well as day-to-day distance changes of individual vehicles was taken into consideration to assess whether range constraints constitute impediments to the acceptance of ZEVs for various types of vehicle use. This research anticipates ZEV acceptance potential for each vehicle category until 2040 based on predicted affordability and applicability. The following study looks at a faster market uptake scenario in which policy measures including car purchase subsidies, CO2-based road tolls, and CO2 pricing of transportation fuels are implemented.