Surge in global Electric Vehicle sales anticipated by 2035

The Global EV Outlook 2024 released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), forecasts a significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, projecting that the global EV fleet could exceed half a billion by 2035. The report delves into various scenarios reflecting potential futures of electric mobility based on recent market trends, policy developments, and technological advancements.
Electric vehicle sales by region and scenario, 2030 and 2035 title=
Source: The IEA

Scenario Analysis: Projected Growth Across Different Policies

The IEA outlines three primary scenarios in its report: the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). Each scenario presents a different trajectory for EV market growth influenced by current policies, announced ambitions, and the overarching goal of achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century.

Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Under the STEPS, which considers existing policies and measures, the global stock of electric vehicles (excluding two/three-wheelers) is expected to rise from under 45 million in 2023 to 525 million in 2035. This represents a 23% annual growth rate, suggesting that one in four vehicles on the road would be electric by 2035.

Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): The APS assumes that all global ambitions and targets announced by governments are fully met. This scenario is more optimistic, projecting the EV stock to reach 585 million by 2035, accounting for 30% of the vehicle fleet.

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE): The most ambitious, the NZE scenario aligns with the global target of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. It projects a rapid increase in EV adoption, with the fleet growing at an average annual rate of 27%, resulting in nearly 790 million EVs by 2035.

Regional Focus: Key Players in the EV Market

The report also highlights the significant role of regional markets such as China, Europe, and the United States in shaping the global electric mobility landscape. For instance, China’s aggressive electrification targets and expanding battery manufacturing capabilities are set to maintain its lead in global EV sales. Meanwhile, Europe’s stringent CO2 standards for vehicles and robust policy framework are expected to drive substantial growth in EV adoption, with sales shares potentially reaching 85% by 2035 under the STEPS and even higher under the APS.

In the United States, new emissions standards and state-level initiatives, such as California’s Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, are poised to accelerate EV adoption. The IEA anticipates that electric light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales could account for over 70% of the market by 2035 in the United States, bolstered by federal and state policies.

Bridging the Gap: Policy Implications and Global Impact

The report underscores the importance of ambitious policy-making and international cooperation to bridge the existing gaps between current policies and the targets needed to meet global climate goals. It also calls for continued innovation in technology and infrastructure to support the expanding EV market. The report suggests that with coordinated efforts and supportive policies, the transition to electric vehicles can be significantly accelerated, potentially surpassing current projections.

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