Roland Berger predicts 25-45% global BEV market share by 2030

Despite significant progress in BEV adoption toward 2030, a recent report by Roland Berger suggests that the 50% target might be too ambitious. Instead, they predict a more realistic adoption range of 25% to 45%, influenced by various economic and market challenges.
Graph illustrating potential scenarios for BEV adoption by 2030, ranging from 25% to 45%, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as supply chain stability and regulatory support.
Source: Roland Berger

Recalibrating Expectations

The report acknowledges significant progress in the EV market, particularly since Tesla’s Model Y breakthrough in 2020. Tesla’s success showed that BEVs could be profitable on a large scale. This prompted other car manufacturers to commit to electrification. Government subsidies and stricter emissions regulations further boosted BEV production and expectations.

However, recent developments have cast doubt on the most optimistic forecasts. According to Roland Berger, three main challenges could temper the expected boom in BEV adoption.

Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical tensions are significantly impacting the supply chain. Strained relationships with China, a key player in battery materials production, pose substantial risks. U.S. and European legislative actions aim to reduce reliance on Chinese companies. These measures, while securing supply chains, disrupt the rapid expansion needed to meet high BEV adoption targets.

Supply Chain Constraints

The report highlights the challenge of developing new supply chains for battery materials. Meeting the projected 2030 demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt requires a threefold increase in supply. Achieving this expansion demands flawless execution and substantial capital. The risks associated with rapid development, including securing necessary skills and equipment, further complicate the scenario.

Domestic Political Divisions

In the United States, domestic political divisions also impact BEV adoption. Adoption rates vary significantly across the country, correlating with political affiliations. States that voted for Biden in the 2020 election have higher adoption rates compared to Trump-voting states. This political divide could slow nationwide adoption as state policies and consumer attitudes differ.

Optimistic vs. Pessimistic Scenarios

Despite these challenges, the report rules out a complete bust scenario for BEV adoption. Roland Berger presents a range of possible outcomes based on varying economic conditions.

An optimistic scenario sees BEV adoption reaching 35-45% by 2030. This depends on sustained economic growth, avoiding major supply chain disruptions, and increasing charging infrastructure. Resolving dealer hesitation and expanding charging stations could achieve the higher end of this range.

A pessimistic scenario suggests adoption rates of 25-35%. This could result from a loss of regulatory support, heightened geopolitical tensions, and ongoing profitability struggles for OEMs. If these challenges persist, the market might gravitate towards the lower end of the forecasted range.

Strategic Implications

The report emphasises the need for strategic flexibility and financial prudence for automotive suppliers. Suppliers should align their strategies based on their market position. Those agnostic to ICE/EV distinctions should diversify their portfolios to balance risks. ICE-dependent suppliers must decide whether to transition to electric vehicles or consolidate their ICE operations.

Leveraging AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency is also recommended. AI can significantly lower research and development expenses and optimise operations. This helps suppliers navigate financial challenges in the EV market. Additionally, suppliers should prepare for multiple adoption scenarios by developing flexible supply chains and tailored regional strategies.

Conclusion

The path to BEV adoption is complex and uncertain, but the Roland Berger report underscores that the transition to electric vehicles is inevitable. Strategic flexibility, financial prudence, and proactive adaptation to evolving market dynamics are key. As the global automotive industry recalibrates expectations, stakeholders must prepare for a dynamic and transformative decade. With careful planning and strategic foresight, the industry can overcome current challenges and achieve significant progress in BEV adoption by 2030.

Source: Roland Berger

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