After years of increasing car CO2 emissions and SUV sales, the long-awaited 2020/21 EU car CO2 standard went into effect in January 2020, and new car CO2 emissions dropped immediately. However, just as electric car sales were taking off, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a halt in activity, bringing car sales and dealerships to a halt. As the CO2 rules for 2020/21 remain in effect, despite a few opportunistic calls for a delay, and as car sales rebound, the question is whether carmakers will meet this year's target or face fines. What does this imply for Europe's fledgling electric vehicle market?
This report examines the performance of automobile manufacturers in the first half of 2020, as well as their compliance strategies, and forecasts the electric vehicle market for 2020 and 2021.
Electric car sales (battery electric, BEV, and plug-in hybrid electric, PHEV) boomed in the first half of the year, reaching a market share of 8%, driven by the entry into force of EU 2020/21 car CO2 emission standards and proof of their success (European Economic Area, EEA). This is more than triple the H1 2019 share as EV sales reach new highs, with Volvo accounting for 23%, BMW accounting for 13%, Hyundai-Kia accounting for 11%, and Renault accounting for 8%. Sales have been increasing since January, both before and after COVID-19, with hybrid vehicles faring better than diesel or gasoline vehicles. Post-COVID purchase incentives kicked in mid-summer in Germany, France, and other countries, and are undoubtedly fueling the emobility momentum, with recent reports of EV sales exceeding 10%.
