More than 400 battery electric vehicle (BEV) models are expected to be released in the next few years as automakers respond to growing consumer demand. Despite a 14% drop in global auto sales in 2020 compared to the previous year due to the pandemic, EV sales increased by 43%. With emission targets and energy transition milestones looming, the EV market is expected to accelerate, as will demand for EV charging solutions. The UK charging infrastructure market, for example, experienced strong growth in 2020, with the number of public charging points increasing by 24%, demonstrating the continued need for investment in this segment.
Considering only the European growth of EVs, it is expected that this will result in a USD 43 billion charging infrastructure opportunity by 2030. This market has seen significant interest in recent years from start-ups, established utilities, and oil and gas companies, all pursuing different segments of the value chain with different business models. Analysts at many organisations are constantly exploring EV growth scenarios with varying levels of expected positive growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published its 2021 forecast for global EV sales, forecasting the global EV fleet to grow from 11 million in 2020 to 145 million (in its Stated Policy Scenario) or over 230 million 2030.
Following the release of its 2021 EV outlook, a more recent IEA report investigates a more aggressive transition scenario with a path to net zero in 2050 that would necessitate no new passenger ICE sales globally by 2035. It also emphasises that, in the medium term, light-duty vehicles are electrifying faster in advanced economies, and that, in order to meet the net-zero target, light-duty vehicles will need to account for roughly 75% of global sales by 2030.
In summary, the growth of the eMobility market is highly dependent on five key factors. These elements are generally interdependent and must be developed in concert if we are to achieve stable and sustained growth.