Evaluating the viability of Battery-Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks

Shifting Focus: The Move Towards Electrification

For years, the trucking industry has explored various alternative fuels and technologies. However, battery-electric powertrains have now become the focal point, driven by successful electrification of light commercial vehicles and buses, along with stringent EU emission reduction targets. The EU Commission’s mandate for a 45% reduction in CO2 emissions from trucks above 7,5 tons by 2030, and a 90% reduction by 2040, has accelerated the push for electrification.

Despite initial limitations in range and battery longevity, recent e-HDT models have significantly improved, offering capabilities suitable for both regional and long-haul applications. However, e-HDT sales have been slow, with only 2% of newly registered trucks in Germany being battery-electric as of Q1 2024. Nevertheless, the industry anticipates growth due to stricter regulations, expanded vehicle portfolios, and lower acquisition costs driven by large-scale production.

Understanding the Total Cost of Ownership

The TCO analysis by P3 considers various factors including purchase/leasing options, maintenance, fuel consumption, and tolls. For the regional-haul scenario (60.000 km annual mileage, 100% depot charging), e-HDTs show a slight cost advantage over six years. In the long-haul scenario (100.000 km annual mileage; 50% depot and highway charging), e-HDTs demonstrate a significant 11% cost advantage over ICE-HDTs.

Regional-Haul Scenario: Detailed Breakdown

• Annual Mileage: 60,000 km
• Charging Infrastructure: 100% depot charging
• Cost Advantage: 4% (approximately 5 cents per km)
• Key Savings: Lower energy costs, reduced tolls, and decreased service and maintenance expenses.

Long-Haul Scenario: Detailed Breakdown

• Annual Mileage: 100,000 km
• Charging Infrastructure: 50% depot, 50% highway charging
• Cost Advantage: 11% (approximately 13 cents per km)
• Key Savings: Higher mileage efficiency, lower tolls, reduced maintenance costs.

Overcoming Financial Barriers

The high initial costs of e-HDTs and the charging infrastructure remain significant barriers. P3’s analysis suggests that leasing models can mitigate these costs, making e-HDTs more financially viable over their operational lifespan. In both purchase and leasing scenarios, e-HDTs eventually outperform ICE-HDTs, particularly when considering long-term operational expenses.

Sensitivity Analysis: The Impact of Energy Prices

The analysis includes a sensitivity examination of electricity and diesel price fluctuations. e-HDTs maintain a cost advantage in most scenarios, even with potential increases in electricity prices or decreases in diesel prices. This resilience highlights the long-term economic benefits of adopting e-HDTs, especially as renewable energy sources become more prevalent and affordable.

Environmental Impact: CO2 Emissions Comparison

Beyond cost, e-HDTs offer substantial environmental benefits. The report includes an assessment of CO2 equivalents (CO2-eq) emitted over the truck’s operational life and battery production. The findings reveal that e-HDTs significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to ICE-HDTs, particularly when powered by green electricity.

Conclusion: Ready for Take-Off?

While e-HDTs currently hold a marginal market share, the landscape is poised for change. As technological advancements continue, battery capacities increase, and public charging networks expand, e-HDTs are expected to become increasingly competitive. P3 emphasises the importance of flexible acquisition models, strategic energy management, and tailored assessments for fleet operators to maximise the benefits of electrification.

The transition to e-HDTs, driven by both economic and environmental incentives, is not just a possibility but a rapidly approaching reality. The trucking industry stands on the brink of a significant transformation, with e-HDTs ready to take off and lead the charge towards sustainable road freight transport.