Electric Vehicles Selection December 2022

This month's Electric Vehicles special has three notable EV-related reports from our database. The selected reports cover a wide range of topics, including EV adoption predictions by 2035, 5 automotive industry trends, and lastly, The European market for zero-emission heavy duty vehicles.
Selected reports

  • Forecasts of electric vehicle penetration and its impact on global oil demand | Columbia, SIPA
  • Global Transportation Trends 2022: Future-ready transportation | Deloitte
  • Assessment of light-duty electric vehicle costs and consumer benefits in the united states in the 2022–2035 time frame | The ICCT

Forecasts for EV adoption in total passenger car sales

Forecasts for EV adoption in total passenger car sales range from 11% to 63% by 2030. The forecast range for 2050 is 31% to about 100%. The wide range is due to varied expected levels of carbon limitations, with New Zealand 2050 projections having the highest EV penetration. Significant changes (e.g., in government policy, technology, pricing, and so on) would be necessary to attain the level of EV adoption required for a net zero 2050 trajectory.

The present significant growth in EV sales—a fourfold increase from 2019 to 2021—is expected to continue or perhaps accelerate, according to this analysis. It accomplishes this by accumulating projections of EV penetration for the medium and long term. It compares survey findings from 14 institutions, including governments, think tanks, oil companies, consultancies, and investment banks, to those from similar research conducted in 2019.

Forecasts of electric vehicle penetration and its impact on global oil demand | Columbia, SIPA

A line graph titled "Forecast BEV Share of Total EV Market (BEVs+PHEVs)" shows multiple projections from different organizations (government, oil companies, other, net zero, carbon constrained) for BEV market share from 2015 to 2050. The data lines vary, with some increasing steadily and others fluctuating. Thick red, green, yellow, and lighter lines represent different sources, indicating varying predictions. Source: Authors' 2021 survey results.
Source: Forecasts of electric vehicle penetration and its impact on global oil demand | Columbia, SIPA

 

The next stage of exponential growth

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing, indicating a revolution in both technology and society. Because certain countries are already seeing exponential growth in EV ownership, transportation authorities and ecosystem partners should focus on addressing the charging infrastructure issue as well as a potential talent shortage in the EV industry.

This paper examines five trends that can assist with the transportation industry’s numerous difficulties as it perhaps enters the next era of exponential growth. Even if new concerns emerge as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as rising concerns about climate change and environmental sustainability.

Global Transportation Trends 2022: Future-ready transportation | Deloitte

Bar chart titled "Figure 3: Global EV purchase intent" showing percentages for various countries. Italy leads at 60%, followed by Spain at 59%. The Philippines and South Africa are at the bottom with 16% and 15%. Other notable countries include the US at 32% and China at 29%.
Source: Global Transportation Trends 2022: Future-ready transportation | Deloitte

 

The European market for zero-emission heavy duty vehicles is rapidly expanding.

China has maintained its worldwide dominance in the zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-HDV) industry, accounting for around 92% of zero-emission sales in 2019 and 97% in 2012. As a result, the Chinese market dwarfs European sales of zero-emission trucks and buses; just 4,000 ZE-HDVs were sold in Europe out of 117,000 sold globally. However, the ZE-HDV market in Europe is rapidly expanding; sales have climbed by 72% each year on average during the previous five years. Following the pandemic, overall HDV sales declined in the years 2019-2020, whereas ZE-HDV sales increased.

This fact sheet provides an overview of Europe’s new heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) market for 2021, which includes buses, big trucks, and light and medium trucks.

Assessment of light-duty electric vehicle costs and consumer benefits in the united states in the 2022–2035 time frame | The ICCT

A pie chart titled "Shares of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle sales by region in 2019-2021" shows China with the largest share at 91.7%. US & Canada have 0.9%, Europe 4.3%, Asia except China 2.3%, Latin America 0.5%, and Africa 0.3%.
Source: Assessment of light-duty electric vehicle costs and consumer benefits in the united states in the 2022–2035 time frame | The ICCT

 

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