COVID-19: The Impact of Lockdowns on EV Markets

This paper presents scenarios with possible lockdown periods of 2, 3 or 4 months, starting mid-March 2020. The scenarios cover the total Light Vehicle (LV) markets and the EV (BEV+PHEV) sector in the 4 geographies of Europe, USA, China, the Non-Triad countries and for the aggregated global totals.

Published

March 2022

Europe: Lockdowns were gradually and cautiously lifted throughout May, and the vehicle industry is ramping up. April car sales were down -80%, while EV sales were down around -17%. The two-month lockdown scenario remains valid.

USA: LV sales were down 47% in April, while EV sales were down 55%. Tesla restarted Fremont on May 11th, despite a conflict with authorities who demanded a shutdown until May 18th or 28th. Sales recovery accelerated as a result.

China: After falling by -44% year on year in March and -80% in February, the total car market has recovered to April 2019 levels. April NEV sales were lower than expected (71k vs. 87+k), owing to low sales by Tesla and BYD.

Non-Triad: Japan extended the state of emergency until May, but there was no hard lockdown. Vehicle sales fell by 30% in April, while EV sales increased by 4%. Canada is likely to follow the United States in reopening, with LV sales down 75% and EV sales down 68%. With preliminary data, South Korea’s car market was up +8% in April, and EV sales reached 3,6k (+/-0%).