In March, global light vehicle sales were down 38% year on year, while EV sales were down -16% year on year. Actual April total vehicle market data suggest a -40% year-on-year loss globally, with a 60-65% year-on-year shortfall outside of China. EVs are expected to lose 24% year on year. Recovery is expected to begin gradually in May. In the most likely scenario, the global LV market loses 10% in 2020 while EVs gain 35% over 2019. Both lose 8% compared to 2020 BAU.
Europe: Lockdowns were gradually and cautiously lifted throughout May, and the vehicle industry is ramping up. April car sales were down -80%, while EV sales were down around -17%. The two-month lockdown scenario remains valid.
USA: LV sales were down 47% in April, while EV sales were down 55%. Tesla restarted Fremont on May 11th, despite a conflict with authorities who demanded a shutdown until May 18th or 28th. Sales recovery accelerated as a result.
China: After falling by -44% year on year in March and -80% in February, the total car market has recovered to April 2019 levels. April NEV sales were lower than expected (71k vs. 87+k), owing to low sales by Tesla and BYD.
Non-Triad: Japan extended the state of emergency until May, but there was no hard lockdown. Vehicle sales fell by 30% in April, while EV sales increased by 4%. Canada is likely to follow the United States in reopening, with LV sales down 75% and EV sales down 68%. With preliminary data, South Korea’s car market was up +8% in April, and EV sales reached 3,6k (+/-0%).
