China’s BYD Poised to Overtake Tesla in Global BEV Market

In an evolving narrative within the electric vehicle (EV) sector, industry analysts project that China's BYD (Build Your Dreams) is on course to overtake Tesla in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales by the end of 2024. This development underscores a significant shift in the global EV market, highlighting the increasing competition and diversity within the industry.
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Source: Visual Capitalist

Recent figures compiled by TrendForce for the full year 2023 reveal that the top 10 BEV companies now command 65% of the market, with Tesla and BYD leading the charge. Tesla, the American EV giant, currently holds a 19.9% share of the global market. However, BYD, China’s largest electric automaker, follows closely with a 17.1% market share, signalling a tight race for the top spot.

The fourth quarter of 2023 marked a pivotal moment, as BYD’s sales figures surpassed those of Tesla, with the Chinese company selling 526,000 vehicles compared to Tesla’s 485,000. This achievement is seen as a precursor to BYD potentially overtaking Tesla in annual sales by the end of 2024.

The rankings for the global BEV market share in 2023 are as follows:

1. Tesla (US): 19.9%
2. BYD (China): 17.1%
3. GAC Aion (China): 5.2%
4. SAIC-GM-Wuling (China): 4.9%
5. Volkswagen (Germany): 4.6%
6. BMW (Germany): 3.6%
7. Hyundai (S. Korea): 2.9%
8. Mercedes-Benz (Germany): 2.6%
9. MG (China): 2.3%
10. KIA (S. Korea): 2.0%

In 2022, BYD had already eclipsed Tesla as the leading producer of all EVs, including non-BEVs, with a total production of 1.8 million vehicles compared to Tesla’s 1.3 million. This milestone underscores BYD’s growing influence and robust performance, particularly in its domestic market. Moreover, BYD has begun expanding its footprint internationally, notably entering the European market and planning to establish factories within Europe to circumvent EU tariffs on Chinese car imports.

The competition within the BEV segment is further intensified by the performance of other Chinese automakers such as GAC Aion and SAIC-GM-Wuling, securing the third and fourth spots, respectively. European giants Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz are also accelerating their electrification strategies, maintaining significant positions in the global rankings.

The total global sales of EVs, including BEVs, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs), reached 13 million units in 2023. This figure represents a 29.8% growth rate over the previous year, albeit a slowdown from the 54.2% growth observed in 2022.

This shifting landscape within the EV market reflects the increasing competitiveness and diversification of the industry. As BYD gears up to potentially surpass Tesla in BEV sales, the global dynamics of EV production and consumption are poised for further change, highlighting the rapid evolution of the sector and the increasing role of Chinese automakers in shaping its future.

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