Electric vehicles are about to enter the mainstream in Europe, and the market is expected to reach a tipping point in 2020/2021. Until recently, the EV market was limited to a small group of early adopters, but the landscape will change dramatically as EVs enter a new phase and approach the mass market. This report shows where future electric cars and batteries will be manufactured in Europe, as well as an analysis of expected production trends and whether or not they will be sufficient to meet EU demand until 2025.
According to current production forecasts, most automakers are ready to embrace electrification and are abandoning the ‘technology neutrality’ approach in favour of focusing on increasing electric car volumes. After several years of slow growth, the number of EV models produced in the EU (and thus available on the market) is about to skyrocket: from around 60 battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and fuel cell (FCEV) models available at the end of 2018, to a total of 176 models in 2020, 214 models in 2021, and 333 models expected in 2025. This is no coincidence, as 2020/21 marks the start of the mandatory EU CO2 target of 95g/km.
Based on T&E’s light vehicle production forecast data and in-house analysis, electric vehicle production in Europe is expected to more than sixfold between 2019 and 2025, reaching more than 4 million cars and vans, or more than a fifth of total EU car production volumes. T&E modelling shows that if carmakers stick to their plans, this will be more than enough to meet the recently agreed EU Car CO2 standards for 2025, or a minimum of 15% in 2025.
As technology advances, an increasing proportion of these will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), accounting for roughly 60% of total EU EV production in 2025. (up from close to half in 2018). In comparison, forecasted production plans for other alternative powertrains such as fuel cell cars and natural gas (CNG) are negligible: only 9,000 FCEV are expected to be produced by 2025, and CNG and LPG vehicles account for 1% or less of total EU production.